H.R. 7266 — Rural and Municipal Utility Cybersecurity Act

5%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

Rural and Municipal Utility Cybersecurity Act — real floor momentum (58% to a vote, on the calendar, quiet for 37 days); 97% if called.

58%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 97% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 58% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 326 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 211–416 (quartiles 252–402). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	308 [208–415]	95%
suspension	62%	337 [215–418]	99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R). Latest action (2026-04-30): Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 545.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).