H.R. 7283 — Ensuring Federal Purchasing Efficiency Act

2%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

Ensuring Federal Purchasing Efficiency Act — would clear the House (95%) but only 6% to ever get the vote.

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

42%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 95% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 6% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 317 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 207–417 (quartiles 234–400). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	271 [185–399]	89%
suspension	62%	344 [217–418]	98%

Receipts

Sponsor: Pat Fallon (R). Latest action (2026-02-04): Ordered to be Reported (Amended) by the Yeas and Nays: 44 - 0.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).