H.R. 7343 — Foster Youth Workforce Opportunity Act

6%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

Foster Youth Workforce Opportunity Act — on the calendar, quiet for 26 days; 37% to reach the floor, 6% to become law.

37%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

16%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 96% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 37% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 311 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 209–416 (quartiles 233–392). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	282 [202–407]	92%
suspension	62%	329 [213–417]	97%

Receipts

Sponsor: Max L. Miller (R). Latest action (2026-05-11): Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 556.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).