H.R. 7376 — Local Water Protection Act

3%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

Local Water Protection Act — on the calendar, quiet for 78 days; 24% to reach the floor, 3% to become law.

24%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

11%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 95% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 24% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 316 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 207–415 (quartiles 245–394). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	293 [194–412]	90%
suspension	62%	330 [213–416]	97%

Receipts

Sponsor: Hillary J. Scholten (D). Latest action (2026-03-20): Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 487.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).