H.R. 7401 — Small Business Lending Fraud Prevention Act

7%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

Small Business Lending Fraud Prevention Act — on the calendar, quiet for 106 days; 38% to reach the floor, 7% to become law.

38%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

19%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 96% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 38% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 328 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 210–417 (quartiles 254–402). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	285 [202–411]	91%
suspension	62%	354 [224–418]	99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Daniel Meuser (R). Latest action (2026-02-20): Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 426.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).