H.R. 741 — Stronger Engagement for Indian Health Needs Act of 2025

11%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

Stronger Engagement for Indian Health Needs Act — real floor momentum (45% to a vote, reported and queued, quiet for 23 days); 95% if called.

45%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

25%

survives downstream

11%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 95% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 45% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 319 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 208–416 (quartiles 252–394). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	285 [184–409]	88%
suspension	62%	339 [218–418]	99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Greg Stanton (D). Latest action (2026-05-14): Ordered to be Reported in the Nature of a Substitute (Amended) by Unanimous Consent.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).