H.R. 7412 — Put America on Commission Act of 2026

4%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

Put America on Commission Act — on the calendar, quiet for 106 days; 30% to reach the floor, 4% to become law.

30%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

13%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 96% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 30% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 326 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 209–417 (quartiles 251–401). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	282 [195–408]	90%
suspension	62%	352 [222–418]	>99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Roger Williams (R). Latest action (2026-02-20): Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 425.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).