H.R. 7418 — STEADFAST Act

5%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

STEADFAST Act — reported and queued, quiet for 23 days; 21% to reach the floor, 5% to become law.

21%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

22%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 95% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 21% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 304 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 208–415 (quartiles 222–393). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	267 [198–395]	88%
suspension	62%	327 [213–417]	99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Stephanie I. Bice (R). Latest action (2026-05-14): Ordered to be Reported in the Nature of a Substitute by the Yeas and Nays: 8 - 3.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).