H.R. 7463 — Foster Youth Postsecondary Education Access and Success Act

3%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

Foster Youth Postsecondary Education Access and Success Act — real floor momentum (45% to a vote, on the calendar, quiet for 30 days); 95% if called.

45%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 95% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 45% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 328 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 209–416 (quartiles 271–399). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	296 [176–412]	90%
suspension	62%	347 [225–417]	98%

Receipts

Sponsor: Judy Chu (D). Latest action (2026-05-07): Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 555.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).