← all forecasts
H.R. 7567 — Farm, Food, and National Security Act of 2026
28%becomes law
moderate confidencepending: Senate
passed_one_chamber
Farm, Food, and National Security Act — through the House, now needs 60 in the Senate: P(≥60) 46% puts enactment at 28%.
→
28%
downstream: Senate + President
If it reaches the floor
Projected 65 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 44–95
(quartiles 52–81). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.
Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is
60 votes — P(≥60) = 46%
(simple-majority P = 92%).
By floor procedure
No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the
Senate would take it up; the branches:
| Procedure | Likelihood |
Projected yea | Passes |
|---|
| conference | 19% |
66 [47–95] |
92% |
| passage | 81% |
64 [43–95] |
92% |
Receipts
Sponsor: Glenn Thompson (R). Latest action (2026-05-19):
Received in the Senate.
Full record: Congress.gov.
Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models
member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 +
passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the
Senate run at moderate confidence (why).