H.R. 7616 — Transatlantic Academic Security and Risk Mitigation Act

0%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

Transatlantic Academic Security and Risk Mitigation Act — would clear the House (92%) but only 0% to ever get the vote.

reaches a floor vote

97%

passes if voted (stage model)

12%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 92% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 0% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 297 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 205–414 (quartiles 217–381). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	254 [183–389]	83%
suspension	62%	323 [212–416]	98%

Receipts

Sponsor: Ronny Jackson (R). Latest action (2026-03-26): Ordered to be Reported by the Yeas and Nays: 27 - 19.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).