H.R. 7688 — DPA Modernization Act of 2026

9%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

DPA Modernization Act — on the calendar, quiet for 52 days; 37% to reach the floor, 9% to become law.

37%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

26%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 96% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 37% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 319 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 210–417 (quartiles 236–400). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	278 [203–404]	92%
suspension	62%	344 [219–418]	99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Warren Davidson (R). Latest action (2026-04-15): Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 529.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).