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H.R. 7744 — Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026
39%becomes law
moderate confidencepending: Senate
passed_one_chamber
Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act — must-pass class. Waiting on the senate, quiet for 89 days; the 39% reflects timing risk, not whether something passes.
→
39%
downstream: Senate + President
If it reaches the floor
Projected 68 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 46–96
(quartiles 53–86). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.
Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is
60 votes — P(≥60) = 53%
(simple-majority P = 94%).
By floor procedure
No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the
Senate would take it up; the branches:
| Procedure | Likelihood |
Projected yea | Passes |
|---|
| conference | 19% |
70 [43–98] |
92% |
| passage | 81% |
67 [46–96] |
94% |
Receipts
Sponsor: Tom Cole (R). Latest action (2026-03-09):
Received in the Senate and Read twice and referred to the Committee on Appropriations.
Full record: Congress.gov.
Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models
member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 +
passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the
Senate run at moderate confidence (why).