H.R. 785 — Representing our Seniors at VA Act of 2026

16%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

Representing our Seniors at VA Act — on the calendar, quiet for 65 days; 32% to reach the floor, 16% to become law.

32%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

51%

survives downstream

16%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 96% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 32% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 327 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 210–418 (quartiles 256–406). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	296 [201–411]	92%
suspension	62%	346 [218–419]	98%

Receipts

Sponsor: Jennifer A. Kiggans (R). Latest action (2026-04-02): Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 498.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).