H.R. 7891 — Student Aid Fraud Oversight and Accountability Act of 2026

4%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

Student Aid Fraud Oversight and Accountability Act — on the calendar; 24% to reach the floor, 4% to become law.

24%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

16%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 95% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 24% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 309 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 208–415 (quartiles 228–396). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	279 [187–403]	89%
suspension	62%	327 [213–417]	98%

Receipts

Sponsor: Glenn Thompson (R). Latest action (2026-05-26): Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 582.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).