H.R. 7892 — No Aid for Ghost Students Act of 2026

6%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

No Aid for Ghost Students Act — real floor momentum (45% to a vote, reported and queued); 97% if called.

45%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

14%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 97% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 45% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 328 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 212–417 (quartiles 258–402). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	304 [208–413]	95%
suspension	62%	343 [219–418]	98%

Receipts

Sponsor: Burgess Owens (R). Latest action (2026-06-03): Rules Committee Resolution H. Res. 1333 Reported to House. Rule provides for consideration of H.R. 8646, H.R. 7726, H.R. 7892 and H.R. 8872. The resolution provides for consideration of H.R. 8646 under a structured rule and H.R. 7726, H.R. 7892, and H.R. 8872 under a closed rule, with one hour of ge
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).