H.R. 7894 — Truman Scholarship Clean House Act

<1%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

Truman Scholarship Clean House Act — would clear the House (94%) but only 4% to ever get the vote.

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

13%

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 94% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 4% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 308 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 207–416 (quartiles 229–391). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	273 [189–403]	86%
suspension	62%	330 [214–417]	>99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Elise M. Stefanik (R). Latest action (2026-03-17): Ordered to be Reported (Amended) by the Yeas and Nays: 19 - 13.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).