H.R. 7995 — CONNECT Act

5%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

CONNECT Act — real floor momentum (58% to a vote, on the calendar, quiet for 26 days); 96% if called.

58%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 96% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 58% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 328 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 211–416 (quartiles 265–401). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	292 [184–413]	91%
suspension	62%	350 [228–417]	>99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Gwen Moore (D). Latest action (2026-05-11): Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 559.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).