H.R. 8029 — Pay Our Homeland Defenders Act

35%becomes law moderate confidencepending: Senate passed_one_chamber

Pay Our Homeland Defenders Act — through the House, now needs 60 in the Senate: P(≥60) 49% puts enactment at 35%.

✓

passed the House

→

35%

downstream: Senate + President

35%

becomes law

If it reaches the floor

majority

60 (cloture)

Projected 66 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 43–95 (quartiles 52–83). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is 60 votes — P(≥60) = 49% (simple-majority P = 92%).

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the Senate would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
conference	19%	70 [46–96]	93%
passage	81%	65 [43–94]	92%

Receipts

Sponsor: Juan Ciscomani (R). Latest action (2026-04-02): Received in the Senate.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).