H.R. 8036 — Interagency Coordination in Export Controls Act of 2026

2%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

Interagency Coordination in Export Controls Act — would clear the House (96%) but only 7% to ever get the vote.

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

35%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 96% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 7% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 322 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 210–416 (quartiles 251–399). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	295 [204–411]	92%
suspension	62%	339 [216–418]	99%

Receipts

Sponsor: James R. Baird (R). Latest action (2026-04-22): Ordered to be Reported in the Nature of a Substitute by the Yeas and Nays: 25 - 19.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).