H.R. 8052 — Veteran Infection Prevention Act

<1%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

Veteran Infection Prevention Act — would clear the House (96%) but only <1% to ever get the vote.

<1%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

40%

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 96% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: <1% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 326 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 209–417 (quartiles 251–405). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	289 [188–410]	90%
suspension	62%	349 [219–418]	99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Jennifer A. Kiggans (R). Latest action (2026-05-14): Ordered to be Reported in the Nature of a Substitute by Voice Vote.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).