H.R. 8202 — To amend the Export Control Reform Act of 2018 to provide for a ten-year statute of limitations for export control violations.

4%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

To amend the Export Control Reform Act — would clear the House (96%) but only 8% to ever get the vote.

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

46%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 96% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 8% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 325 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 209–417 (quartiles 254–399). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	292 [192–410]	90%
suspension	62%	345 [219–417]	99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Ryan Mackenzie (R). Latest action (2026-04-22): Ordered to be Reported by the Yeas and Nays: 44 - 0.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).