H.R. 8225 — To designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 111 South Tremont Street in Tremonton, Utah, as the "Sorensen-Estrada Post Office".

16%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

To designate the facility of the United States Postal Service located… — reported and queued, quiet for 38 days; 28% to reach the floor, 16% to become law.

28%

reaches a floor vote

98%

passes if voted (stage model)

58%

survives downstream

16%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 95% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 28% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 309 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 208–417 (quartiles 226–397). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	267 [192–400]	89%
suspension	62%	335 [215–418]	99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Blake D. Moore (R). Latest action (2026-04-29): Ordered to be Reported by Voice Vote.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).