H.R. 8340 — Taxpayer Funds Oversight and Accountability Act

20%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

Taxpayer Funds Oversight and Accountability Act — reported and queued, quiet for 38 days; 38% to reach the floor, 20% to become law.

38%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

53%

survives downstream

20%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 96% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 38% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 331 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 210–417 (quartiles 265–404). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	287 [192–413]	89%
suspension	62%	357 [231–418]	>99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Dave Min (D). Latest action (2026-04-29): Ordered to be Reported (Amended) by the Yeas and Nays: 40 - 0.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).