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H.R. 8364 — To amend title 5, United States Code, to authorize the increase of the retirement age in the United States Capitol Police.
64%becomes law
moderate confidencepending: Senate
passed_one_chamber
To amend title 5, United States Code, to authorize the increase of th… — through the House, now needs 60 in the Senate: P(≥60) 53% puts enactment at 64%.
→
64%
downstream: Senate + President
If it reaches the floor
Projected 67 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 47–95
(quartiles 53–84). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.
Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is
60 votes — P(≥60) = 53%
(simple-majority P = 94%).
By floor procedure
No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the
Senate would take it up; the branches:
| Procedure | Likelihood |
Projected yea | Passes |
|---|
| conference | 19% |
72 [49–98] |
95% |
| passage | 81% |
66 [47–95] |
93% |
Receipts
Sponsor: Bryan Steil (R). Latest action (2026-04-28):
Received in the Senate.
Full record: Congress.gov.
Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models
member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 +
passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the
Senate run at moderate confidence (why).