H.R. 842 — Nancy Gardner Sewell Medicare Multi-Cancer Early Detection Screening Coverage Act

18%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

Gardner Sewell Medicare Multi-Cancer Early Detection Screen… — reported and queued, quiet for 246 days; 32% to reach the floor, 18% to become law.

32%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

57%

survives downstream

18%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 98% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 32% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 342 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 216–417 (quartiles 290–406). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	318 [211–414]	97%
suspension	62%	356 [228–418]	99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Jodey C. Arrington (R). Latest action (2025-10-03): Reported (Amended) by the Committee on Ways and Means. H. Rept. 119-333, Part I.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).