H.R. 8428 — Federal Fraud Prevention Workforce Training Act

28%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

Federal Fraud Prevention Workforce Training Act — real floor momentum (45% to a vote, reported and queued, quiet for 38 days); 95% if called.

45%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

63%

survives downstream

28%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 95% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 45% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 322 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 208–417 (quartiles 239–404). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	275 [191–404]	90%
suspension	62%	351 [218–418]	99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Glenn Grothman (R). Latest action (2026-04-29): Ordered to be Reported (Amended) by the Yeas and Nays: 40 - 0.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).