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H.R. 8469 — Making appropriations for military construction, the Department of Veterans Affairs, and related agencies for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2027, and for other purposes.
28%becomes law
moderate confidencepending: Senate
passed_one_chamber
Making appropriations for military construction, the Department of Ve… — must-pass class. Waiting on the senate; the 28% reflects timing risk, not whether something passes.
→
28%
downstream: Senate + President
If it reaches the floor
Projected 65 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 43–94
(quartiles 52–81). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.
Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is
60 votes — P(≥60) = 48%
(simple-majority P = 92%).
By floor procedure
No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the
Senate would take it up; the branches:
| Procedure | Likelihood |
Projected yea | Passes |
|---|
| conference | 19% |
72 [46–96] |
94% |
| passage | 81% |
64 [42–93] |
92% |
Receipts
Sponsor: John R. Carter (R). Latest action (2026-05-20):
Received in the Senate.
Full record: Congress.gov.
Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models
member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 +
passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the
Senate run at moderate confidence (why).