H.R. 8562 — To designate a building of the Chancery of the United States in Pristina, Kosovo, as the "Eliot L. Engel Building".

<1%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

To designate a building of the Chancery of the United States in Prist… — would clear the House (96%) but only <1% to ever get the vote.

<1%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

21%

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 96% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: <1% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 331 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 210–416 (quartiles 273–401). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	299 [196–413]	91%
suspension	62%	351 [225–417]	98%

Receipts

Sponsor: Ritchie Torres (D). Latest action (2026-05-13): Ordered to be Reported by the Yeas and Nays: 39 - 7.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).