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H.R. 8646 — Agriculture, Rural Development, Food and Drug Administration, and Related Agency Appropriations Act, 2027
41%becomes law
moderate confidencepending: Senate
passed_one_chamber
Agriculture, Rural Development, Food and Drug Administration, and Rel… — must-pass class. Waiting on the senate; the 41% reflects timing risk, not whether something passes.
→
41%
downstream: Senate + President
If it reaches the floor
Projected 61 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 40–93
(quartiles 52–74). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.
Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is
60 votes — P(≥60) = 41%
(simple-majority P = 90%).
By floor procedure
No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the
Senate would take it up; the branches:
| Procedure | Likelihood |
Projected yea | Passes |
|---|
| conference | 19% |
66 [45–95] |
92% |
| passage | 81% |
60 [39–89] |
90% |
Receipts
Sponsor: Andy Harris (R). Latest action (2026-06-04):
Motion to reconsider laid on the table Agreed to without objection.
Full record: Congress.gov.
Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models
member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 +
passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the
Senate run at moderate confidence (why).