H.R. 8665 — Allied Defense Sales Act

<1%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

Allied Defense Sales Act — would clear the House (95%) but only <1% to ever get the vote.

<1%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

15%

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 95% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: <1% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 313 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 208–416 (quartiles 229–394). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	266 [190–393]	88%
suspension	62%	340 [217–417]	99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Ryan K. Zinke (R). Latest action (2026-05-13): Ordered to be Reported by the Yeas and Nays: 44 - 1.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).