H.R. 8736 — Restoration of Employment Choice for Adults with Disabilities Act

<1%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

Restoration of Employment Choice for Adults with Disabiliti… — would clear the House (90%) but only <1% to ever get the vote.

<1%

reaches a floor vote

98%

passes if voted (stage model)

14%

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 90% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: <1% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 278 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 195–409 (quartiles 213–359). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	251 [194–372]	86%
suspension	62%	295 [197–413]	92%

Receipts

Sponsor: Glenn Grothman (R). Latest action (2026-05-21): Ordered to be Reported (Amended) by the Yeas and Nays: 18 - 15.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).