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H.R. 884 — To prohibit individuals who are not citizens of the United States from voting in elections in the District of Columbia and to repeal the Local Resident Voting Rights Amendment Act of 2022.
15%becomes law
moderate confidencepending: Senate
passed_one_chamber
To prohibit individuals who are not citizens of the United States fro… — through the House, now needs 60 in the Senate: P(≥60) 37% puts enactment at 15%.
→
15%
downstream: Senate + President
If it reaches the floor
Projected 60 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 44–88
(quartiles 51–70). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.
Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is
60 votes — P(≥60) = 37%
(simple-majority P = 92%).
By floor procedure
No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the
Senate would take it up; the branches:
| Procedure | Likelihood |
Projected yea | Passes |
|---|
| conference | 19% |
62 [47–91] |
93% |
| passage | 81% |
59 [44–87] |
92% |
Receipts
Sponsor: August Pfluger (R). Latest action (2025-06-11):
Received in the Senate and Read twice and referred to the Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs.
Full record: Congress.gov.
Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models
member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 +
passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the
Senate run at moderate confidence (why).