H.R. 8844 — U.S. Customs and Border Protection Officer Retirement Technical Corrections Act

<1%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

U.S. Customs and Border Protection Officer Retirement Technical Corre… — would clear the House (95%) but only <1% to ever get the vote.

<1%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

48%

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 95% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: <1% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 319 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 208–417 (quartiles 241–399). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	279 [192–406]	89%
suspension	62%	343 [218–418]	99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Brian K. Fitzpatrick (R). Latest action (2026-05-20): Ordered to be Reported (Amended) by the Yeas and Nays: 40 - 0.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).