H.R. 8872 — Preventing Waste, Fraud, and Abuse in TANF Act

2%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

Preventing Waste, Fraud, and Abuse in TANF Act — on the calendar; 21% to reach the floor, 2% to become law.

21%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

11%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 92% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 21% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 291 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 204–413 (quartiles 216–377). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	255 [187–387]	85%
suspension	62%	312 [208–414]	95%

Receipts

Sponsor: Mike Carey (R). Latest action (2026-06-03): POSTPONED PROCEEDINGS - Pursuant to clause 1(c) of rule XIX, the Chair announced further proceedings on H.R. 8872 is postponed.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).