H.R. 9010 — Making appropriations for the Legislative Branch for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2027, and for other purposes.

<1%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

Making appropriations for the Legislative Branch for the fiscal year… — must-pass class. On the calendar; the <1% reflects timing risk, not whether something passes.

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

18%

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 94% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 4% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 310 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 207–416 (quartiles 227–392). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	274 [200–400]	88%
suspension	62%	331 [214–418]	98%

Receipts

Sponsor: David G. Valadao (R). Latest action (2026-05-22): Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 580.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).