H.R. 9022 — Energy and Water Development and Related Agencies Appropriations Act, 2027

<1%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

Energy and Water Development and Related Agencies Appropria… — must-pass class. On the calendar; the <1% reflects timing risk, not whether something passes.

<1%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

35%

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 92% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: <1% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 292 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 203–412 (quartiles 217–372). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	267 [186–400]	88%
suspension	62%	308 [206–415]	94%

Receipts

Sponsor: Charles J. "Chuck" Fleischmann (R). Latest action (2026-05-22): Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 581.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).