H.R. 915 — Small Business Technological Act of 2025

8%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

Small Business Technological Act — real floor momentum (62% to a vote, on the calendar); 95% if called.

62%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

13%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 95% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 62% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 319 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 208–416 (quartiles 240–395). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	277 [200–401]	90%
suspension	62%	344 [217–418]	99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Mark Alford (R). Latest action (2026-06-03): Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 591.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).