H.R. 941 — Small LENDER Act

2%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

Small LENDER Act — would clear the House (93%) but only 18% to ever get the vote.

18%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

14%

survives downstream

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 93% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 18% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 294 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 206–414 (quartiles 217–383). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	263 [190–390]	87%
suspension	62%	313 [210–416]	97%

Receipts

Sponsor: J. French Hill (R). Latest action (2026-04-21): Ordered to be Reported by the Yeas and Nays: 26 - 22.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).