← all forecasts
H.R. 973 — Setting Consumer Standards for Lithium-Ion Batteries Act
21%becomes law
moderate confidencepending: Senate
passed_one_chamber
Setting Consumer Standards for Lithium-Ion Batteries Act — through the House, now needs 60 in the Senate: P(≥60) 70% puts enactment at 21%.
→
21%
downstream: Senate + President
If it reaches the floor
Projected 71 yea of 100 voting; 90% interval 45–97
(quartiles 58–87). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.
Filibusterable: the realistic Senate line is
60 votes — P(≥60) = 70%
(simple-majority P = 92%).
By floor procedure
No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the
Senate would take it up; the branches:
| Procedure | Likelihood |
Projected yea | Passes |
|---|
| conference | 19% |
74 [47–97] |
93% |
| passage | 81% |
70 [44–97] |
92% |
Receipts
Sponsor: Ritchie Torres (D). Latest action (2025-04-29):
Received in the Senate.
Full record: Congress.gov.
Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models
member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 +
passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the
Senate run at moderate confidence (why).