H.R. 979 — AM Radio for Every Vehicle Act of 2025

17%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

AM Radio for Every Vehicle Act — real floor momentum (55% to a vote, on the calendar, quiet for 206 days); 98% if called.

55%

reaches a floor vote

98%

passes if voted (stage model)

30%

survives downstream

17%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 98% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 55% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 338 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 214–417 (quartiles 277–406). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
passage	38%	311 [212–415]	98%
suspension	62%	355 [222–418]	99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Gus M. Bilirakis (R). Latest action (2025-11-12): Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 330.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).