H.Res. 113 — Directing the Secretary of Homeland Security to transmit to the House of Representatives certain documents relating to Department of Homeland Security policies and activities related to the security of Department inform…

<1%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

Directing the Secretary of Homeland Security to transmit to the House… — would clear the House (87%) but only <1% to ever get the vote.

<1%

reaches a floor vote

98%

passes if voted (stage model)

<1%

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 87% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: <1% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 287 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 172–413 (quartiles 222–366). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
resolution	63%	265 [150–403]	81%
suspension	37%	325 [215–417]	98%

Receipts

Sponsor: Bennie G. Thompson (D). Latest action (2025-03-05): Placed on the House Calendar, Calendar No. 7.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).