H.Res. 114 — Directing the Secretary of Homeland Security to transmit to the House of Representatives certain documents relating to Department of Homeland Security policies and activities related to domestic preparedness and collect…

<1%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

Directing the Secretary of Homeland Security to transmit to the House… — would clear the House (93%) but only 1% to ever get the vote.

reaches a floor vote

98%

passes if voted (stage model)

<1%

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 93% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 1% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 310 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 204–415 (quartiles 235–390). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
resolution	63%	292 [188–410]	90%
suspension	37%	342 [216–417]	>99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Bennie G. Thompson (D). Latest action (2025-03-04): Placed on the House Calendar, Calendar No. 6.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).