H.Res. 1179 — Condemning attacks on civilians in Sudan and calling for an end to external support to the warring parties and for efforts to promote a negotiated settlement of the war.

<1%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

Condemning attacks on civilians in Sudan and calling for an end to ex… — would clear the House (93%, 35 cosponsors) but only <1% to ever get the vote.

<1%

reaches a floor vote

97%

passes if voted (stage model)

<1%

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 93% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: <1% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 317 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 198–416 (quartiles 242–396). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
resolution	63%	291 [184–412]	89%
suspension	37%	361 [231–419]	>99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Pramila Jayapal (D). Latest action (2026-05-13): Ordered to be Reported in the Nature of a Substitute by the Yeas and Nays: 44 - 2.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).