H.Res. 186 — Of inquiry requesting the President to transmit certain documents to the House of Representatives relating to the conflicts of interest of Elon Musk and related information.

<1%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

Of inquiry requesting the President to transmit certain documents to… — would clear the House (92%, 20 cosponsors) but only <1% to ever get the vote.

<1%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

<1%

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 92% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: <1% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 312 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 201–415 (quartiles 240–390). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
resolution	63%	289 [184–410]	89%
suspension	37%	351 [223–417]	99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Gerald E. Connolly (D). Latest action (2025-04-09): Placed on the House Calendar, Calendar No. 22.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).