H.Res. 187 — Of inquiry requesting the President to transmit certain information to the House of Representatives referring to the termination, removal, placement on administrative leave, moved to another department of Federal employ…

<1%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

Of inquiry requesting the President to transmit certain information t… — would clear the House (93%, 20 cosponsors) but only <1% to ever get the vote.

<1%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

<1%

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 93% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: <1% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 307 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 199–416 (quartiles 236–388). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
resolution	63%	284 [175–407]	89%
suspension	37%	347 [225–419]	>99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Kweisi Mfume (D). Latest action (2025-04-09): Placed on the House Calendar, Calendar No. 23.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).