H.Res. 195 — Of inquiry requesting the President of the United States to furnish certain information to the House of Representatives relating to the operations of the Social Security Administration after January 20, 2025, including…

<1%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

Of inquiry requesting the President of the United States to furnish c… — would clear the House (91%) but only <1% to ever get the vote.

<1%

reaches a floor vote

99%

passes if voted (stage model)

<1%

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 91% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: <1% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 300 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 195–414 (quartiles 234–377). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
resolution	63%	279 [169–407]	87%
suspension	37%	336 [217–416]	98%

Receipts

Sponsor: John B. Larson (D). Latest action (2025-03-21): Placed on the House Calendar, Calendar No. 11.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).