H.Res. 237 — Of inquiry requesting the President and directing the Secretary of Education to transmit, respectively, certain documents to the House of Representatives relating to the reduction in force and other downsizing measures…

<1%becomes law high confidencepending: House on_calendar

Of inquiry requesting the President and directing the Secretary of Ed… — would clear the House (92%) but only <1% to ever get the vote.

<1%

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

<1%

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 92% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: <1% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 313 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 185–416 (quartiles 238–397). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
resolution	63%	282 [167–410]	87%
suspension	37%	365 [233–418]	>99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Robert C. "Bobby" Scott (D). Latest action (2025-04-29): Placed on the House Calendar, Calendar No. 25.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).