H.Res. 589 — Providing for the public release of certain documents, records, and communications related to the investigation of Jeffrey Epstein.

<1%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

Providing for the public release of certain documents, records, and c… — would clear the House (94%) but only <1% to ever get the vote.

<1%

reaches a floor vote

98%

passes if voted (stage model)

<1%

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 94% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: <1% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 301 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 207–414 (quartiles 217–386). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
resolution	63%	281 [201–404]	91%
suspension	37%	336 [215–418]	99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Ralph Norman (R). Latest action (2025-07-21): Rules Committee Resolution H. Res. 598 Reported to House. Rule provides for consideration of H. Res. 589. The resolution provides that H.Res. 589 is hereby adopted.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).