H.Res. 64 — Affirming the alliance between the United States and the Republic of Korea.

<1%becomes law high confidencepending: House reported

Affirming the alliance between the United States and the Republic of… — would clear the House (94%, 68 cosponsors) but only 4% to ever get the vote.

reaches a floor vote

>99%

passes if voted (stage model)

<1%

survives downstream

<1%

becomes law

The gap: on the floor this would pass — 94% by the member-vote simulation — but the floor is the hard part: 4% to ever get the vote. That gap, not the whip count, is the story.

If it reaches the floor

majority

Projected 320 yea of 430 voting; 90% interval 205–417 (quartiles 243–398). Intervals are backtest-verified to cover ~90%.

By floor procedure

No vote is scheduled, so the headline marginalizes over how the House would take it up; the branches:

Procedure	Likelihood	Projected yea	Passes
resolution	63%	294 [182–412]	91%
suspension	37%	364 [234–419]	>99%

Receipts

Sponsor: Thomas R. Suozzi (D). Latest action (2026-05-13): Ordered to be Reported by the Yeas and Nays: 43 - 3.
Full record: Congress.gov.

Forecast run predict-20260606T193507Z · models member-vote-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 + passage-1.0.0-t117d118-20260606 · conditional whip forecasts for the Senate run at moderate confidence (why).